The Home Truth

Will residential real estate improve during 2010? At a recent Salt Lake Board of REALTORS annual housing forecast breakfast, many Realtors and industry analysts were feeling enthusiastic and cautiously optimistic regarding the 2010 Utah residential housing market forecast.
There is now “pent-up” demand for tens of thousands of new housing units,” stated Chris Nelson, director of the University of Utah’s Metropolitan Research Center during the event. “Combined with continuing growth in Utah, (that) will lead to a robust housing market starting in the middle of this year, but (actually) taking hold by 2011.”
But his actual message to everyone in the room was this: have patience, perhaps two or three decades of it.
Nelson says that over the next 20 years, as Utah’s population continues to grow faster than any other state, the demand for housing will grow with it. By 2030, Utah could add another 1.5 million residents to its current 2.7 million, and 700,000 new jobs could be created. He also says that along the Wasatch Front, 450,000 units (residential and commercial combined) would be needed. That’s 50 percent more real estate than what’s available in Utah today.
Citing a handout prepared by James Wood, Director of the University of Utah’s Bureau of Economic and Business Research, Nelson says Salt Lake County can expect about a 3 percent growth in home sales this year, or just more than 9,000 units. That would mean the recent downturn in the residential housing market was short-lived, only lasting a couple of years. However, he also expects housing prices will fall about 3 to 5 percent more this year before they bottom out and start to rise again in 2011.—utahbusiness.com