TAX CREDIT GONE, BUT RECOVERY WILL STAY

Now that the federal Home Buyer’s Tax Credit has expired, many thought home-buying activities would dry up. Unlike last winter, the credit has neither been expanded nor extended, and industry watchers have worried that home prices might see a “double dip” without the stimulative effect of the money.
There’s no denying the program has been successful. But the free lunch has ended and reality is staring us right in the face. Where will the housing market head from here?
I predict a continued slow recovery in prices and activity, and I have three reasons for believing it:
● The overall economy is improving. Slowly but surely, people are feeling a little better about their own financial situation, and that translates directly into spending. The more spending that occurs, the better the economy. The better the economy, the more jobs that are created. The more jobs that are out there, the more houses that sell.
That’s an oversimplification of an extremely complex situation, and we still have a long way to go, but things are definitely better than they were a year ago, and most believe better times are ahead.
Interest rates are still extremely attractive. And I’m not talking about some weird adjustable rate instrument that is tied to an offering of inter-bank rates in London. I’m referring to the all-American 30-year, fixed-rate loan that our parents had on the house in which we grew up.
Most Americans are firmly convinced that a single-family house in a good neighborhood in a growing community is a solid investment, and they are right. And if you can lock in a good price with a low fixed interest rate, you add strength to your financial position by being able to predict your housing expense into the future.
● And what about the loss of the tax credit? I don’t think it will matter.
The housing market is still soft enough to absorb the financial hit. By that I mean a savvy shopper who isn’t afraid to negotiate can expect to buy a house in this market at enough of a discount to offset the lost tax credit.
Sellers are painfully aware that price sells houses, and I expect builders to offer their own version of a “home buyer’s discount” as a way to incentivize the home-buying public. Owners of resale homes will follow suit.
Is that a cheap and crass marketing gimmick designed to fool the public into thinking they are getting a benefit that they truly are not receiving? Yes.
Will it work? Yes.
John Adams is an author, broadcaster and investor. He answers real estate questions on radio station WGKA (920 AM) Iin Atlanta. For more real estate information or to make a comment, visit www.money99.com.